Machine tools are machines that process metal blanks into machine parts, which have a very important strategic significance for improving a country's manufacturing level. The revitalization of the equipment manufacturing industry largely depends on the revitalization of the machine tool industry. Today, the world's manufacturing industry is developing from automation and digital manufacturing to collaborative and intelligent manufacturing. High-end machine tools are an important part of intelligent manufacturing.
Intelligent manufacturing is strongly supported by the state, and the basic commonality and key technologies of intelligent manufacturing have been rapidly developed under high light. The scale of China's CNC machine tool market has grown from 114.8 billion yuan in 2015 to 131.4 billion yuan in 2019, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, mainly because the downstream automotive and consumer electronics industries are sluggish and the demand for machine tools has declined. In 2020, due to the impact of global public health incidents, the national economy will be severely impacted, and there will be no chance to release the demand for machine tool consumption. In the context of favorable policies, the CNC rate of domestic machine tools is expected to increase.
As early as ten years ago, the total output of China's machine tool industry ranked first in the world. So far, China has won the crown of the world's largest machine tool producer for many years. China has a strong competitive advantage in the production of low- and mid-end machine tools, accounting for nearly 90% of the global mid- and low-end market. However, due to the late start of China's machine tool industry, the added value of products is low. In terms of core technology, there is still a big gap between domestic and Western manufacturing powers and Japan, and there is still no advantage in the global high-end machine tool market.
Machine Tool Industry Chain
The upper reaches of China's machine tool industry chain are mainly parts suppliers. The quality of raw materials largely determines the overall performance of the machine tool. The main components include structural parts, control systems, drive systems, transmission systems, etc. In the cost composition of the core parts of machine tools, structural parts account for the highest proportion, accounting for 40%.
For a long time, China has no say in the field of core components of high-end CNC machine tools, and is often stuck by other countries. High-end CNC machine tools have strict requirements on the performance of parts. Machine tool manufacturers usually choose international brands with excellent component performance, such as the Westwind spindle of the United Kingdom, the NSK screw of Japan, and the CNC system of FANUC. Because the industrial base of domestic brands is weaker than that of foreign manufacturing powerhouses, the reliability and stability of parts are not as good as foreign brands.
The downstream applications of machine tools are very extensive. The automobile industry is the most important downstream application field of machine tools, followed by the 3C electronics industry. The demand for these two major sectors accounts for 80% of the total demand for machine tools.
The Industry Ushered in Development Opportunities Under the Trend of Automobile Lightweight
In the past five years, the global enthusiasm for the electrification of automobiles has continued to grow. In 2020, global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 3.24 million units, a year-on-year increase of 43.4%.
Under the trend of lightweight new energy vehicles, the consumption of aluminum alloys has increased significantly. Compared with traditional cast iron materials, aluminum alloy has the advantages of light weight, high strength and good heat dissipation. The application of alloys in key parts such as the body, engine and wheels of new energy vehicles is becoming a trend. The aluminum consumption of China's new energy vehicles increased from 75,000 tons in 2017 to 146,000 tons in 2018. It is estimated that by 2030, the proportion of aluminum used in China's new energy vehicle industry will rise from 3.8% of the current total to 29.4%. As aluminum alloy processing is mainly performed on metal cutting machine tools, the increase in aluminum consumption will increase the demand for processing aluminum alloy parts, which will bring opportunities for high-end CNC machine tools.
5G Mobile Phone Shipments Are Growing Rapidly, And the Penetration Rate Is Expected to Increase Rapidly.
With the rapid penetration of the global smartphone market, the coverage rate has become saturated. In recent years, the global mobile phone market has maintained a relatively stable sales volume. In 2020, global smartphone shipments will be 1.24 billion units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%. In addition, since the launch of 5G smartphones in July 2019, the shipment of 5G mobile phones has grown rapidly. By 2020, global 5G smartphone shipments will reach 240 million units, and sales are expected to reach 500 million units by 2021, of which 300 million will be in the Greater China region. The continuous launch of smartphones equipped with 5G technology is expected to become the next growth point in the mobile phone market. Promote the ecological construction of 5G smart electronic products, driving the surge in demand for CNC machine tools.
Huge Demand for Inventory Replacement, CNC Machine Tool Upgrades and Import Substitution
The service life of the machine tool is generally about ten years. During the period from 2010 to 2012, the demand for machine tools was strong, and the production scale of the industry increased sharply, with nearly 2.4 million metal cutting machine tools being produced. In the existing stock of machine tools, only 30% of the machine tools have a service life of more than ten years, so there is a huge demand for stock equipment updates.
The State Attaches Great Importance to Policies to Promote Industry Development
The development level of the machine tool industry is directly related to the overall development of the manufacturing industry. In order to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the domestic manufacturing industry, the government attaches great importance to the independent innovation capability and intelligence level of the machine tool industry, and has issued a series of policies to guide and promote the development of the machine tool industry. Since 2012, supportive policies regarding the machine tool industry have been launched frequently to promote the upgrading of the industry structure and improve the competitiveness of the world.
With the development of electronic information technology, the world's machine tool industry has entered the era of mechatronics with digital manufacturing technology as the core, and CNC machine tools have become the mainstream of various industries. Although the development of China's machine tool industry is relatively late and the industrial foundation is relatively weak, with the intensification of global integration and social division of labor, and driven by a strong domestic supply chain foundation and consumer market, the domestic machine tool industry will achieve rapid growth.
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