The crankshaft is a component in a reciprocating piston engine that converts the kinetic energy of the piston's linear reciprocating motion into rotational kinetic energy. The crankshaft is mainly composed of a long rotating shaft and is the core component of the crank connecting rod of an internal combustion engine, which supports the force transmitted from the connecting rod, converts it into torque and outputs it from the crankshaft to drive other accessories to work. The power of the internal combustion engine and the entire mechanical system comes from the rotation of the crankshaft, so the crankshaft is also called the heart of the internal combustion engine.
The performance of the crankshaft, such as accuracy, stiffness and wear resistance, will greatly affect the operating effect and life of the internal combustion engine. It is one of the five core components of the internal combustion engine. It has an important impact on the vehicle's sports performance, fuel economy and environmental emissions.
Crankshaft Industry Chain
The upstream of the crankshaft industry chain is mainly the suppliers of raw materials, energy, and equipment. The raw materials are mainly steel. China is a large country in steel production. Therefore, the supply of raw materials is sufficient. The energy supply mainly includes coal and electricity; the middle reaches are manufacturers of heavy and light crankshafts, and the downstream is It is an internal combustion engine manufacturer and maintenance service company.
As the core component of the internal combustion engine, the market demand for crankshaft is closely related to the development of the internal combustion engine industry. In the demand structure of China's internal combustion engine, the value of the crankshaft is greater in the areas where the demand proportion is lower. Specifically, the demand for internal combustion engines in passenger cars accounts for the largest proportion, at 40%, and the value of crankshafts is at a medium level; commercial vehicles account for 8.4%, and the value of crankshafts is relatively high; ships and generators account for 0.1% and 2.6% respectively; agricultural machinery and garden machinery account for 9.1% and 4.5% respectively, and the value of crankshaft is medium.
Because crankshaft products have an important impact on internal combustion engines and even the whole machine, they have strict technical and safety requirements, so they also have strict requirements on suppliers. When the engine OEM chooses a supplier that matches the crankshaft, it must strictly inspect and certify the manufacturing process, the finished crankshaft and the crankshaft blank. Once the crankshaft matching supplier has passed the inspection and obtained the qualification for supply, the cooperation relationship between the two parties is generally strong and lasting.
Domestic crankshaft manufacturers are mainly distributed in East China and Northeast China, mainly represented by Shandong and Liaoning. These regions have a strong industrial base and metal processing capabilities, and these provinces are distributed with important crankshaft supporting diesel engine factories.
The development of the internal combustion engine industry determines the ceiling of the crankshaft industry to a certain extent. With increasingly strict environmental protection policies, new energy has become a hot spot in the market, and the internal combustion engine as a traditional power machine is facing huge challenges. The data shows that from 2014 to 2020, domestic internal combustion engine sales are on a downward trend, and internal combustion engine sales will decrease to 46.81 million units by 2020.
The Sales Center of the Heavy-Duty Truck Industry Moves Up, And the Policy Is Favorable for Industry Development
Since the end of 2016, the heavy truck industry has entered a new cycle. Heavy-duty truck sales recovered rapidly from 2016 to 2017. In 2017, the annual sales volume exceeded 1.1 million. The growth rate slowed down from 2018 to 2019. The sales volume in 2019 was 1.174 million. It is estimated that the sales of heavy trucks in the next two years will be 102 and 1.1 million, respectively. 105 to 1 million vehicles will not be the pinnacle of the heavy-duty truck industry. It is estimated to be the new sales center of the industry. Data shows that the number of domestic heavy-duty trucks is increasing year by year, and it is expected that in the next few years, the possibility of a cliff-like decline in the market is extremely low.
The elimination of subsidy policy has effectively promoted the replacement of State VI vehicles and accelerated the clearance of State III vehicles. In July 2018, the State Council announced related policies to actively promote the early elimination and renewal of diesel trucks operating under the National III and below emission standards; in 2020, the State Council proposed to use rewards instead of supplements to speed up Eliminate diesel trucks with national III and below emission standards. In addition, under the circumstance that the transportation volume remains unchanged, the management of large-ton and small-scale bids is expected to transfer part of the light-duty truck market to the heavy-duty truck market, thereby promoting the growth of the heavy-duty truck market. After the epidemic is superimposed, in order to restore the economy, infrastructure and other counter-cyclical adjustment tools will be added, which will greatly increase the purchase demand for heavy trucks.
Heavy-duty engine crankshaft is an integral part of heavy-duty truck internal combustion engines, and its sales are directly related to the sales of heavy-duty trucks. We believe that the heavy-duty truck industry will continue to maintain a relatively high level in the future. Driven by the prosperity of the heavy-duty truck industry in the next few years, the crankshaft market will also maintain steady growth.
Steady Growth of Light Engine Crankshaft
Light trucks are ushering in the peak period of renewal. First of all, the implementation time of China's National Standards III and National IV standards were in 2008 and 2015 respectively. The market sales of light trucks were at a high level from 2010 to 2013, and National III standards were replaced by a large amount; secondly, according to the current light truck market positions According to the volume data, the holding volume is between the last nine years and the total sales volume of the last ten years. Based on the calculation of the life cycle of light trucks, it is now in a new round of replacement period.
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