Wind power is one of the most mature, large-scale development conditions and commercial development prospects in the field of renewable energy. The available wind energy is widely distributed and has huge reserves around the world. At the same time, as wind power-related technologies continue to mature and equipment upgrades, the global wind power industry is developing rapidly.
Global New Installed Capacity of Wind Power Will Remain High
According to statistics, as of the end of 2019, the cumulative installed capacity of global wind power was 651GW, an increase of more than 26 times from the end of 2001, with an average annual compound growth rate of 20.12%.
Globally, there was a small trough in new wind power installations from 2016 to 2018, and growth will resume in 2019. In 2019, global installed wind power capacity reached 60.4GW, an increase of 19% over 2018. As of the end of 2019, the total installed capacity of wind power worldwide was 650GW, an increase of 10% over the same period last year. The international wind power market, dominated by Europe, has a vast space. The British government has set a target of 40% of its electricity generation from offshore wind power by 2030. The German government has raised the target of offshore wind power installed capacity in 2030 to 20GW.
In 2021, new onshore wind power will be added at full price parity to promote the long-term and healthy development of the industry. At present, the wind power guide price in category I and II wind power resource areas has been lower than the national average coal power benchmark price, reaching the parity level on the generation side. With the advent of the era of wind parity tariffs, parity projects have gradually become the biggest driving force for the growth of wind power installations. In 2020, the installed scale of wind parity tariffs projects has reached 11.397 million kilowatts. The pressure of parity will accelerate industry integration, promote industry technological progress and industry chain system optimization, which is conducive to the long-term and healthy development of the industry.
Fan Parts Enter the High Boom Cycle
In the context of increasing installed capacity and high-speed growth in wind turbine output, upstream wind turbine bearings, wind towers, and other components have entered a period of high prosperity. In 2019 and the first half of 2020, most wind turbine component companies maintained rapid growth in performance.
Bearings are the basic components of modern industry and are known as the "joints" of mechanical equipment. Their main function is to support rotating shafts or other moving bodies, guide rotation or movement, and bear the load transmitted by the shaft or parts on the shaft. Its accuracy, performance, life, and reliability play a decisive role in the performance and reliability of the host.
The Global Wind Bearing Market Is Monopolistic
At present, the global ball bearing market presents a pattern of monopolistic competition. These eight leading companies, including SKF, Schaeffler, NSK, NTN, Minebea, NACHI, and JTKET, account for 70% of the global market.
Looking back at history, before 2006, most of the supporting bearings for wind power equipment in China were imported, which were expensive and had a long delivery cycle. In 2006, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "70% localization rate of wind power equipment". With the support of policies, the domestic wind power bearing industry developed rapidly, bearing enterprises rose rapidly, and finally realized the localization of pitch bearings and yaw bearings. In 2010, the police of the "70% localization rate of wind power equipment" was abolished. Foreign-funded enterprises have poured into the Chinese market. Global leaders such as SKF, FAG, Timken, Schaeffler, and NTN and have set up wind power bearing factories in China.
Local enterprises mainly occupy the middle and low-end markets. The vast majority of bearings produced in China are small and medium-sized bearings. From the perspective of import and export situation, the import and export value of China's rolling bearings from January to August 2020 is about 2.2 billion US dollars, and the unit prices of import and export are 1.41 US dollars and 0.64 US dollars respectively. The unit price of imports is more than twice the unit price of exports.
There are many participants in the bearing manufacturing industry in China. Data show that in 2019, China's bearing industry achieved an operating income of 177 billion yuan, of which the top ten bearing manufacturing enterprises achieved an operating income of 50.67 billion yuan, and the industry CR10 was only 28.6%.
Domestic High-End Bearings Are Mainly Inferior to Foreign Countries in Materials and Technology
The factors restricting the development of China's high-end bearing industry are mainly reflected in materials and processes. In terms of materials, the current level of high-end bearing steel products in China is far behind that of manufacturing powers such as Sweden, Germany, and Japan.
In terms of processing technology, high-end bearing manufacturing technology involves a series of technical problems such as materials, design, mechanical processing, inspection, and testing, and requires basic research in the fields of contact mechanics, lubrication theory, tribology, fatigue and damage, heat treatment and material organization.
The supply of imported bearings is blocked, providing domestic enterprises with a window for import substitution. The sudden epidemic in 2020 shortened the time for wind power installations and pushed the supply of wind power main bearings to fall short of demand. At the same time, the outbreak of the European epidemic had a greater impact on the global supply chain of wind power bearings and brought opportunities for bearing localization.
The Supply of Foreign Bearings Is Blocked, And It Is Time to Replace Foreign Wind Power Bearings
Relying on China's huge industrial volume, China's bearing industry is the leader in scale. In 2019, China's bearing output was 19.6 billion sets, and its economic scale ranked third in the world. However, China's bearing industry is large but not strong. High-end bearings are far behind Japan, Europe, and the United States in terms of service life, reliability, and carrying capacity. High-end products such as high-power wind turbine bearings still rely on imports.
In general, wind power meets the requirements of human sustainable development, with distinctive characteristics of the times and trends. With the rapid development of the global wind power industry, the related parts market has also risen. As one of the core components of the wind power field, the bearing will enter a period of high prosperity. At this stage, the market for high-end bearings is mainly monopolized by international giants. With the continuous breakthrough of technology and the catalysis of the epidemic, the process of localization of bearings is accelerating.
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